A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

Territorial counter-singing in male sac-winged bats (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Saccopteryx bilineata</Emphasis>): low-frequency songs trigger a stronger response

In many animal species, individuals compete for resources but avoid escalated conflicts by threat displays, i.e. a mutual signalling behaviour that enables the opponents to predict the outcome of the conflict without the necessity of actual fighting. For example, territory holders may use acoustic signals to communicate not only their own identity and the borders of their territory but also their competitive quality, fighting ability and motivation. Here, we show that male sac-winged bats, Saccopteryx bilineata, adjust their vocal territorial displays according to the fundamental frequency of territorial songs of their opponents. In playback experiments with territorial males, low-frequency stimuli elicited a higher territorial song rate and length than high-frequency stimuli. Male S. bilineata that sing more often and with lower fundamental frequencies have been shown to sire more offspring than their competitors. Fundamental frequency of territorial songs, hence, may reveal male quality and, consequently, the resulting threat posed to competing males. We argue that this is reflected in the increased response of competitors to low-frequency territorial songs shown here. Such competitive signalling behaviour has been shown in a few mammal species like red deer and baboons but, thus far, not in bats. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Umweltrelevanz von Diphenylamin — Ein Stoff der 3. EU-Altstoffprioritätenliste

Diphenylamine (DPA), the simplest secondary aromatic amine, is a compound from the third European Union (EU) list of priority pollutants. It was assigned to Germany to assess and control its environmental risks. DPA is most commonly used as a stabilizer agent in nitrocellulose-containing explosives and propellants, in the perfumery, and as an antioxidant in the rubber and elastomer industry. DPA is also widely used to prevent the post-harvest deterioration of apple and pear crops. It is a parent compound of many derivatives which are used for the production of dyes, pharmaceuticals, photography chemicals and further small-scale applications. At the beginning of the eighties, the estimated world production of DPA was ?40,000 tons per year (in Germany ?4,000 tons per year). The compound is still produced world-wide by the chemical industries. Recently published reports showed that DPA was found in soil and groundwater (within the ppb to ppm range). Some ecotoxicological reports demonstrated the potential hazard of various diphenylamines to the aquatic environment and to bacteria and animals as well. Studies on the biodegradability of DPA and its derivatives are very sparse. Therefore, further investigations are required to determine the complete dimensions of the potential environmental hazard and to introduce possible (bio)remediation techniques for sites that are contaminated with this compound or its derivatives. This review summarizes the environmental relevance of DPA as has been published in the literature thus far. It may possibly support the German authorities in their assessment of the risks of this priority pollutant.     

Ökonomische Ansätze zur Ökosystembewertung am Beispiel des Bodens

As it is practically impossible in an industrial society to reduce impacts into ecosystems to a level that would preclude any damages, the need for damage valuation arises. One of the available valuation tools is the economic approach. Subsequent publications present this approach using the example of soils. In the first part, soils as part of ecosystems are considered from an ecological and a conventional economic point of view. In the following so-called ecological-economic perspective, more recent developments in economic valuation research are introduced. It is shown how ecological and economic valuation can complement one another. It is emphasized that economic valuations should be restricted to a critical soil structure which, in economic terms, is determined by the non-substitutable services of the ecological asset.     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

No net loss of what,for whom?: stakeholder perspectives to Biodiversity Offsetting in England

Market-based instruments (MBIs) have emerged as a popular approach to balance development and conservation objectives. However, their ability to accomplish this is often beset by poor implementation in practice. This is testament to a widening gap between the rate of policy development and implementation of MBIs and the maturity of research and evaluation on their design, and impact on affected stakeholders. Within this context, this paper examines multi-stakeholder perspectives to the adoption of Biodiversity Offsetting in England, an instrument designed to enable biodiversity losses in one place to be compensated through conservation improvements elsewhere. Analysis reveals issues associated with social and ecological compensation of biodiversity loss. Findings suggest that there is a need for a broader consideration of issues surrounding distributive justice, access to nature and the status of ownership over sites of common heritage when accounting for biodiversity loss and its compensation. This message is salient to both the study context as well as the burgeoning international practice of Biodiversity Offsetting.     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

Low aggression levels and unbiased sex ratios in a prey-rich environment: no evidence of siblicide in Ngorongoro spotted hyenas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crocuta crocuta</Emphasis>)

Avian models of facultative siblicide predict that rates of sibling aggression and the incidence of siblicide should be lower in prey-rich than prey-poor environments, and that siblicide should only occur when fitness benefits outweigh costs. We tested these predictions by comparing data from spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) twin litters in the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, a habitat with a high density of resident prey (176 animals/km²) with similar data from the adjacent Serengeti National Park where density of resident prey is low (3.3 animals/km²). As predicted, rates of sibling aggression in Crater twin litters were substantially lower than those among twin siblings in the Serengeti. There was no evidence of siblicide in the Crater, in contrast to the Serengeti, where facultative siblicide occurs frequently. The growth rate of Crater cubs in singleton litters was similar to that of cubs in twin litters, whereas the growth rate of Serengeti singletons was higher than that of cubs in twin litters. Thus despotic behavior by dominant Crater cubs was unlikely to provide fitness benefits, while dominant Serengeti cubs that eliminated their sibling benefited from increased growth and enhanced survival. Previous studies have demonstrated biases in the sex-composition of hyena litters due to facultative siblicide. No such biases were apparent in Crater litters. Our results provide strong evidence that levels of sibling aggression in spotted hyenas are adjusted in an adaptive manner, and that siblicide is facultative and resource dependent. Our results do not support the idea of pre-natal manipulation of offspring sex by female spotted hyenas in response to changes in resource abundance.